Taylor-Made Homefront: The missing seller problem in Northeast Johnson County

For the last two years, many housing experts have predicted that inventory would gradually return as homeowners adjusted to higher mortgage rates. The thinking was straightforward: as people became accustomed to higher borrowing costs, more homeowners would eventually decide to move, creating a healthier balance between supply and demand.

So far in 2026, that’s not happening.

In fact, the data suggests the opposite. If you’ve been waiting for more homes to hit the market in Northeast Johnson County this spring, you’re probably still waiting. While buyer activity has moderated from the frenzy of 2021 and 2022, the real story today isn’t a lack of buyers. It’s a lack of sellers.

The numbers tell the story.

In May 2026, Northeast Johnson County saw 127 new listings come to market. That’s down nearly 12% from May 2025, when 144 homeowners listed their homes for sale. June’s numbers are even more striking. Through the same point in the month, new listings are down nearly 40% year-over-year, falling from 109 new listings in June 2025 to just 66 in June 2026.

What’s perhaps most surprising is what didn’t happen this year. Historically, April through June is when inventory builds. Last year, new listings jumped nearly 32% from April to May. This year, new listings were essentially flat, increasing less than 1%. The traditional spring inventory surge simply never arrived.

As a result, inventory isn’t growing—it’s shrinking.

Active listings in Northeast Johnson County have fallen from 92 in May to just 73 in June, a decline of more than 20% in a single month. Compared to June of last year, buyers have more than 21% fewer homes to choose from. That shrinking inventory has pushed months of supply from 1.12 months in June 2025 down to just 0.56 months today, a reduction of nearly 50%.

For context, a balanced housing market is generally considered to have four to six months of inventory. We aren’t even close. Despite higher mortgage rates and a more cautious buyer pool, Northeast Johnson County remains firmly in a seller’s market because there simply aren’t enough homeowners willing to list their homes.

So what’s causing homeowners to stay put?

The biggest factor continues to be the lock-in effect. Millions of homeowners across the country refinanced or purchased homes between 2020 and 2022 when mortgage rates hovered around 3%. Today, moving often means replacing a mortgage in the 3% range with one that is roughly double that rate.

For many families, the math is difficult to justify. Even if they move into a home with a similar purchase price, their monthly payment could increase dramatically because of today’s financing costs. The home they want may be available, but the financial penalty for making the move feels too great.

Interest rates, however, are only part of the story.

The job market has also changed. While unemployment remains relatively low, we are no longer experiencing the hiring boom that followed the pandemic. News of layoffs, hiring freezes, and economic uncertainty has made many households more cautious. People may still feel secure in their jobs, but they don’t necessarily feel confident enough to make major financial changes.

When uncertainty increases, people tend to delay large discretionary decisions. Buying a new car gets postponed. Major remodeling projects get delayed. Moving to a different house often gets pushed to the back burner as well.

One of the ways I think about housing decisions is through the lens of aspirin moves versus vitamin moves.

An aspirin move solves a problem. Maybe you’ve outgrown your home because a new baby is on the way. Maybe you’re caring for an aging parent. Perhaps there’s been a job relocation, a divorce, or a death in the family. These are moves driven by necessity. The homeowner may not want to move, but circumstances leave little choice.

A vitamin move is different. That’s the homeowner who wants a larger kitchen, a better floor plan, a bigger lot, or the backyard pool they’ve always dreamed about. Nothing is necessarily wrong with their current home. They simply want something that better fits their lifestyle or long-term goals.

In a healthy housing market, we see plenty of both types of sellers. Families solving problems list their homes, but so do families pursuing opportunities and lifestyle improvements. Together, those groups create the normal flow of inventory that keeps the market moving.

Today, Northeast Johnson County appears to be dominated by aspirin sellers.

The families who must move are still moving. Life continues to happen. Babies are born. Jobs change. Estates need to be settled. Those homeowners continue to enter the market because their circumstances demand action.

What we’re seeing far fewer of are vitamin sellers.

Many homeowners who would normally upgrade, downsize, relocate within the community, or pursue a lifestyle improvement are choosing to stay where they are. Between the lock-in effect, higher borrowing costs, and economic uncertainty, the reward simply doesn’t feel worth the risk. They may still want the larger kitchen or the pool, but they are no longer willing to trade a 3% mortgage for it.

That missing group of vitamin sellers is one of the biggest reasons inventory remains so constrained.

It also helps explain one of the most common misconceptions I hear from consumers.

Because homes are no longer selling in a matter of hours and bidding wars aren’t as common as they were a few years ago, many people assume inventory must have returned to normal.

The reality is exactly the opposite.

Buyer demand has cooled from the extraordinary levels we experienced during the pandemic housing boom, but seller activity has cooled even more. The result is a market where inventory remains exceptionally tight despite a slower pace of sales.

For sellers, that distinction matters.

Low inventory does not mean every home will sell instantly. Today’s buyers are more selective. They pay attention to condition, updates, location, and pricing in ways they often didn’t during the frenzy of 2021 and 2022. Homes that miss the mark can still sit on the market.

At the same time, homes that are properly priced and thoughtfully prepared continue to enjoy one major advantage: very little competition. In many neighborhoods throughout Northeast Johnson County, buyers simply don’t have many alternatives.

As we move deeper into the summer selling season, the biggest question facing our market isn’t whether buyers will show up. The bigger question is whether homeowners will finally decide to make a move.

So far, the answer appears to be no.

And until that changes, Northeast Johnson County will likely continue to be defined not by a shortage of buyers, but by a shortage of sellers.

If you are curious what your home might sell for in today’s market, I am always happy to be a resource.